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Overview

 

This system trades the 30 Year Bonds and 10 Year Note contracts traded on the CBOT and trade long and short.  The initial money management stop is based on recent volatility and ranges.

 

A few years after starting to trade the system, we decided to test the system on the Long Gilt traded on the LIFFE and EuroBund traded on the EUREX.  Since these are markets never "seen" by the system, this represent the ultimate out of market test. Although accuracy and profit factors were lower, the results were highly profitable and tradable which is further indication of the robustness of the system.  The TradeStation results and equity charts can be seen below.

 

The system is executed on the regular trading hour contracts and the orders are placed for the same. However, the electronic markets can be used as long as the orders are not executed outside the regular market hours.

 

Performance

 

The system is independently verified by Collective2.  For real time independently verified results, please follow the link below

 

 

CTS Treasury Trader at Collective2

 

 

Results are based on one contract traded and $75 was deducted from each trade for slippage and commission.

 

Annual backtested results since 1983 can be seen below.

(Results up to 03/31/2006)

 

Individual Markets Performance Statistics

 

Market

Net Profit

Percent Profitable

Average Trade

Profit Factor

Max Drawdown

10Y Notes

$93,534

51.50%

$352

2.04

$8,656

Bonds

$189,085

51.19%

$502

2.04

$7,119

 

 

Yearly combined totals for both markets

 

Year

Trades

Winning Trades

Percent Profitable

Net Profit

1983

20

5

62.50%

527

1984

26

8

72.73%

13,933

1985

23

8

72.73%

17,646

1986

33

15

65.22%

22,338

1987

27

4

44.44%

-306

1988

32

10

71.43%

12,913

1989

26

10

58.82%

11,472

1990

24

11

91.67%

16,841

1991

31

11

68.75%

16,847

1992

31

12

63.16%

5,316

1993

30

12

60.00

6,391

1994

31

8

61.54%

3,472

1995

27

10

71.43%

25,194

1996

31

11

68.75%

21,003

1997

26

8

57.14%

6,363

1998

24

12

75.00

16,013

1999

26

5

38.46%

12,534

2000

29

9

64.29%

6,294

2001

23

11

91.67%

10,306

2002

22

7

43.75%

20,506

2003

27

9

47.37%

8,053

2004

32

10

52.63%

23,084

2005

35

13

59.09%

6,359

2006

7

4

57.14%

-478

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

643

330

51.32%

282,619

 

Average Yearly return  = $12,309

 

 

Monthly  Results

 

Year

Jan

Feb

March

April

May

June

July

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

1983

 

 

 

 

 

-3428

6256

-960

2191

-2259

-113

-1159

1984

1031

-650

938

754

6225

298

-3647

-72

1956

6050

897

153

1985

1113

-6069

381

1063

10175

1447

-2816

175

-2741

3500

4331

7088

1986

-3950

17844

8978

-1159

925

4691

-5019

-481

-1744

-241

2894

-400

1987

334

-931

-1728

3031

994

1381

-3900

350

4500

-1475

-459

-2403

1988

10344

572

1228

3613

3647

2425

-2056

-3534

1288

2913

-6191

-1334

1989

-31

394

-225

1616

7578

7097

1406

-6188

-25

2188

-69

-2269

1990

-

2553

1459

175

1609

1834

-381

1034

72

594

5988

1903

1991

-709

728

1488

-1556

-313

822

-288

4428

5500

1041

1144

4563

1992

-1091

-1869

1028

-3119

1406

1488

6094

1788

3097

-5891

-1556

3941

1993

5022

6375

-878

-847

38

-2338

2100

3100

-2269

-2875

2331

-3369

1994

4381

-6150

7469

2744

-619

-4134

-1284

-2819

1531

-2100

4575

-122

1995

2584

5125

-666

1769

12550

1650

-5500

-888

1084

2941

2691

1853

1996

-2631

1950

7725

3447

1613

2228

-

-900

384

6156

5219

-4188

1997

803

-5253

3000

-1925

16

1334

8453

-4434

-856

2822

819

1584

1998

2600

-2503

-3734

-

1953

2347

-1025

5738

7581

2894

163

-

1999

-688

9831

-47

306

4363

1025

1744

-916

1600

-213

-2575

-1897

2000

147

1925

5144

625

709

-738

128

634

544

-2897

-1616

1688

2001

341

2594

-1634

-1075

-616

72

2219

2675

2084

4694

-4053

3006

2002

-388

-

1703

-1828

-1363

1641

6531

7538

8144

-1394

2091

-2169

2003

1050

2300

-4975

2691

10456

1419

706

-466

-1159

-6019

675

1375

2004

3788

2800

5006

2884

903

-1050

991

4675

1725

-69

1375

56

2005

1053

291

1900

4822

4475

-206

-2859

1694

-4878

3078

-3884

875

2006

-1853

397

978

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average Monthly return = $1020

 

 

The equity curve for the system based on the backtested results can be seen below.  The equity curve is smooth with no significant spikes up and down.

Created by TradersStudio

 

The TradeStation Equity Curves for the Individual markets are below

 

Treasury Bonds

 

 

Treasury Notes

 

 

Out of Market Test on Long Gilt and Eurobund since 1990

(Results up to 3/31/06)

 

Market

Contract Currenty

Assumed Exchange Rate

Net Profit

Percent Profitable

Average Trade