
Overview
This system trades the 30 Year Bonds and 10 Year Note contracts
traded on the CBOT and trade long and short. The initial money management stop is based on recent volatility and ranges.
A few years after starting to trade the system, we decided to test
the system on the Long Gilt traded on the LIFFE and
EuroBund traded on the EUREX. Since these are markets never "seen" by the
system, this represent the ultimate out of market test. Although accuracy and
profit factors were lower, the results were highly profitable and tradable which is further
indication of the robustness of the system. The TradeStation results and equity
charts can be seen below.
The
system is executed on the regular trading hour contracts and the orders are
placed for the same. However, the electronic markets can be used as long as the
orders are not executed outside the regular market hours.
Performance
The
system is independently verified by Collective2. For real time independently
verified results, please follow the link below
CTS Treasury Trader at Collective2
Results are based on one contract traded and $75 was deducted from
each trade for slippage and commission.
Annual backtested results since 1983 can be seen below.
(Results up to 03/31/2006)
Individual Markets Performance Statistics
|
Market
|
Net Profit
|
Percent Profitable
|
Average Trade
|
Profit Factor
|
Max Drawdown
|
|
10Y Notes
|
$93,534
|
51.50%
|
$352
|
2.04
|
$8,656
|
|
Bonds
|
$189,085
|
51.19%
|
$502
|
2.04
|
$7,119
|
Yearly combined totals for both markets
|
Year
|
Trades
|
Winning Trades
|
Percent Profitable
|
Net Profit
|
|
1983
|
20
|
5
|
62.50%
|
527
|
|
1984
|
26
|
8
|
72.73%
|
13,933
|
|
1985
|
23
|
8
|
72.73%
|
17,646
|
|
1986
|
33
|
15
|
65.22%
|
22,338
|
|
1987
|
27
|
4
|
44.44%
|
-306
|
|
1988
|
32
|
10
|
71.43%
|
12,913
|
|
1989
|
26
|
10
|
58.82%
|
11,472
|
|
1990
|
24
|
11
|
91.67%
|
16,841
|
|
1991
|
31
|
11
|
68.75%
|
16,847
|
|
1992
|
31
|
12
|
63.16%
|
5,316
|
|
1993
|
30
|
12
|
60.00
|
6,391
|
|
1994
|
31
|
8
|
61.54%
|
3,472
|
|
1995
|
27
|
10
|
71.43%
|
25,194
|
|
1996
|
31
|
11
|
68.75%
|
21,003
|
|
1997
|
26
|
8
|
57.14%
|
6,363
|
|
1998
|
24
|
12
|
75.00
|
16,013
|
|
1999
|
26
|
5
|
38.46%
|
12,534
|
|
2000
|
29
|
9
|
64.29%
|
6,294
|
|
2001
|
23
|
11
|
91.67%
|
10,306
|
|
2002
|
22
|
7
|
43.75%
|
20,506
|
|
2003
|
27
|
9
|
47.37%
|
8,053
|
|
2004
|
32
|
10
|
52.63%
|
23,084
|
|
2005
|
35
|
13
|
59.09%
|
6,359
|
|
2006
|
7
|
4
|
57.14%
|
-478
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Summary
|
643
|
330
|
51.32%
|
282,619
|
Average Yearly return = $12,309
Monthly Results
|
Year
|
Jan
|
Feb
|
March
|
April
|
May
|
June
|
July
|
Aug
|
Sept
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
1983
|
|
|
|
|
|
-3428
|
6256
|
-960
|
2191
|
-2259
|
-113
|
-1159
|
|
1984
|
1031
|
-650
|
938
|
754
|
6225
|
298
|
-3647
|
-72
|
1956
|
6050
|
897
|
153
|
|
1985
|
1113
|
-6069
|
381
|
1063
|
10175
|
1447
|
-2816
|
175
|
-2741
|
3500
|
4331
|
7088
|
|
1986
|
-3950
|
17844
|
8978
|
-1159
|
925
|
4691
|
-5019
|
-481
|
-1744
|
-241
|
2894
|
-400
|
|
1987
|
334
|
-931
|
-1728
|
3031
|
994
|
1381
|
-3900
|
350
|
4500
|
-1475
|
-459
|
-2403
|
|
1988
|
10344
|
572
|
1228
|
3613
|
3647
|
2425
|
-2056
|
-3534
|
1288
|
2913
|
-6191
|
-1334
|
|
1989
|
-31
|
394
|
-225
|
1616
|
7578
|
7097
|
1406
|
-6188
|
-25
|
2188
|
-69
|
-2269
|
|
1990
|
-
|
2553
|
1459
|
175
|
1609
|
1834
|
-381
|
1034
|
72
|
594
|
5988
|
1903
|
|
1991
|
-709
|
728
|
1488
|
-1556
|
-313
|
822
|
-288
|
4428
|
5500
|
1041
|
1144
|
4563
|
|
1992
|
-1091
|
-1869
|
1028
|
-3119
|
1406
|
1488
|
6094
|
1788
|
3097
|
-5891
|
-1556
|
3941
|
|
1993
|
5022
|
6375
|
-878
|
-847
|
38
|
-2338
|
2100
|
3100
|
-2269
|
-2875
|
2331
|
-3369
|
|
1994
|
4381
|
-6150
|
7469
|
2744
|
-619
|
-4134
|
-1284
|
-2819
|
1531
|
-2100
|
4575
|
-122
|
|
1995
|
2584
|
5125
|
-666
|
1769
|
12550
|
1650
|
-5500
|
-888
|
1084
|
2941
|
2691
|
1853
|
|
1996
|
-2631
|
1950
|
7725
|
3447
|
1613
|
2228
|
-
|
-900
|
384
|
6156
|
5219
|
-4188
|
|
1997
|
803
|
-5253
|
3000
|
-1925
|
16
|
1334
|
8453
|
-4434
|
-856
|
2822
|
819
|
1584
|
|
1998
|
2600
|
-2503
|
-3734
|
-
|
1953
|
2347
|
-1025
|
5738
|
7581
|
2894
|
163
|
-
|
|
1999
|
-688
|
9831
|
-47
|
306
|
4363
|
1025
|
1744
|
-916
|
1600
|
-213
|
-2575
|
-1897
|
|
2000
|
147
|
1925
|
5144
|
625
|
709
|
-738
|
128
|
634
|
544
|
-2897
|
-1616
|
1688
|
|
2001
|
341
|
2594
|
-1634
|
-1075
|
-616
|
72
|
2219
|
2675
|
2084
|
4694
|
-4053
|
3006
|
|
2002
|
-388
|
-
|
1703
|
-1828
|
-1363
|
1641
|
6531
|
7538
|
8144
|
-1394
|
2091
|
-2169
|
|
2003
|
1050
|
2300
|
-4975
|
2691
|
10456
|
1419
|
706
|
-466
|
-1159
|
-6019
|
675
|
1375
|
|
2004
|
3788
|
2800
|
5006
|
2884
|
903
|
-1050
|
991
|
4675
|
1725
|
-69
|
1375
|
56
|
|
2005
|
1053
|
291
|
1900
|
4822
|
4475
|
-206
|
-2859
|
1694
|
-4878
|
3078
|
-3884
|
875
|
|
2006
|
-1853
|
397
|
978
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average Monthly return = $1020
The equity
curve for the system based on the backtested results can be seen below. The
equity curve is smooth with no significant spikes up and down.

Created by TradersStudio
The TradeStation Equity Curves for the Individual markets are
below
Treasury Bonds

Treasury Notes

Out of Market Test on Long Gilt and Eurobund since 1990
(Results up to 3/31/06)
|
Market
|
Contract Currenty
|
Assumed Exchange Rate
|
Net Profit
|
Percent Profitable
|
Average Trade
| |